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Wednesday, April 25, 2007

Has the market reached a top?

So a few posts ago Flogger asked the following in a follow-up comment:

Do you think it is time to start selling at these lofty levels again so that we have some cash on the sidelines?
The short answer... No. Use stop orders to protect those gains.

The long answer... There are several market factors currently at play which are worth noting:
  • Positive Factors: Interest rates have stabilized, higher oil prices are already factored into the market, many good earnings reports this quarter (many due to international growth), the dollar is weak which makes US companies more competitive, the housing mess is slowly deflating (that sub-prime concern did not tank the market), China growth may be slowing but is still strong and Iraq is already factored into the market.
  • Negative Factors: Inflation could re-emerge due to higher energy costs --> driving higher interest rates. ("On Wednesday, crude oil futures settled up $1.26 to $65.64 per barrel and gasoline futures rose to 8 1/2 month highs on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after the Energy Department reported a decline in U.S. gasoline inventories.")
So all in all, the market seems positive to me at this time barring the potential for some higher interest rates on the horizon. Using the analysis above this helps me to formulate my investing strategy:
  1. Own oil and oil drillers right now. It serves as a balance against the negative exposure of oil prices continuing to increase.
  2. Own higher dividend paying companies. It provides a little insurance against any downward movement...and everyone loves dividend stocks right now.
  3. Have overseas exposure. Most of the growth being shown by the current earnings reports are being sourced internationally.
I am sticking with this market until something really starts falling apart. And using any dips (like the one back in March due to the sub-prime and China scares) to buy some of the stocks on my watch list.

1 comment:

Unknown said...

Nice summary! Appreciate your efforts especially considering the circumstances ...