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Tuesday, April 17, 2007

10 Percent

As I was sitting in Barnes & Noble last night reading an exceedingly boring book about high yield investing strategies, I sat back and thought about the golden 10% assumption. I always use it..and why not...historically it is been proven to be reasonably accurate over the long haul. But when taken a bit further, if you deconstruct that into monthly gains required...amazingly it is only a paltry 0.8% per month return! Honestly that stuck me as a pretty low bar to try and cross every month. I think that we can do better ;-)


Now I know that we won't always pick stocks that go up...but geez...on any given day the price of a stock can go up or down a percentage point or two. Even the 3 GenX holdings are already up about 1% from the last update post I gave...just 4 trading days ago.

Having said this...I have absolutely no desire to become a day trader, seeing as the commissions tend to eat you alive and make profits exceedingly difficult. BUT... it does stress the point that if you can pick some good quality stocks which are cheap, and be selective in your holding of positions...you will likely see them rise. And when they do, you need to be willing to cash in and sit on the sidelines for another great opportunity to present itself. If this is the case...then it would appear to be reasonable to assume that we could beat that 10% assumption in any type of market.

4 comments:

Unknown said...

"Now I know that we won't always pick stocks that go up...but geez...on any given day the price of a stock can go up or down a percentage point or two." You are in a bull market right now. Has 2000 been that long ago that you don't remember that incredible bear market?!? What goes up, will come down. You are correct in that it is a great idea to lock in your profits and sit around and wait for other opportunities to present themselves. I wish you all the best! Save and invest well to retire early!!!

Rob said...

Believe me I still remember 2000 every time I look at all my worthless options ;-) BUT...there were some stocks that went up in 2000...mostly defensive/bear stocks. If we had not all been pigs and got greedy/slaughtered then we would have been out of that market as soon as it dropped 10%. And then whoah...what a buying opportunity if you had all that cash on the sidelines...after the correction many stocks doubled in the next year! I guess I will have to make sure and blog about the way I use stop sell orders ;-)

Unknown said...

Do you think it is time to start selling at these lofty levels again so that we have some cash on the sidelines? CANNOT wait till we hire a financial advisor in retirement and NEVER consider these issues again! Appreciate your thoughts though!!!

Unknown said...

I know ... I know ... at the very least I will have to oversee the results of my financial advisor!