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Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Deleveraging...

The media seems to be very fond of stating that "Wall Street is deleveraging".  They all seem to think that this is good.  I happen to agree with this fact....but...why aren't they in the same breath mentioning that the US Goverment is simply Re-Leveraging in return?  We are spending money that we do not have in the hopes that we get a good return in the future.  Isn't that the same thing as buying on margin/credit?  This is going to be a mess in about 5 years.  Let's assume that in 2 years things start to turn around...guess who will be knocking at our door:  Mr. Inflation of course.  What do you use to fight inflation?  You raise the fed discount rate.  What happens when you do that?  You stiffle the economy again (but at least you have an economy to stiffle so the theory goes).  


I heard Sec. Geitner on the talking shows this weekend keep insisting that this administration was interested in fixing the issue...not just pushing the problem off and creating more bubbles in the future.  I beg to differ.  This administration is simply using different levers (the past administration gave you money back in the form of tax cuts and rebates to delay the pain).  This administration is playing with the value of the USD to accomplish the same task.  Either way we are simply "Cross-Leveraging" the issue from the Financials to the US Gov't.  I guess the taxpayer is more forgiving than I imagined.

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